Friday, July 12, 2019

Retail records new low in sales in May and maintains PIFIO performance

With retraction of 0.1% in the sales volume in May over the previous month, the retail sector still demonstrates fragility to walk with its own legs. For the second semester, the tenants ' hope is based on specific incentives to release credit for the consumer and low dollar. In view of this scenario, the stagnation of the sector has been presenting since January and, consequently, the effects of weak demand that some activities have faced in recent months. "The performance that retail as a whole has been registering since the beginning of the first quarter is worrying. The results also go parallel to the deflation index that segments such as clothing and food retailing obtained: a price drop of 0.56%, the largest since May 2002, "argued the chief economist of the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), Fábio Bentes. For him, the reduction in prices of these segments is a "clear" indication that demand remains weak in both the durable and non-durable products category. "When we analyze the segment of products that depend directly on income and credit the news is also not good, as for example in the sale of automobiles, automotive parts and construction material", complemented Bentes. According to the monthly trade Survey (PMC), held by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), in May on April, the retraction in car sales was 2.1%. The same occurred in the category of construction material, with a drop of 1.8%. Also according to the survey, in the restricted retail, there were tipping in the sale of segments such as fuels and lubricants (-0.8%) and articles of personal and domestic use (-1.4%). In this perspective, for the CNC economist, the second semester must present a more "strong" sales pace, especially through governmental incentives to consumption. "The release of active accounts resources from the FGTS [guarantee Fund for time of service] comprises some of the measures that are already engaged by the federal government to stimulate the sector, although the effect of this is only felt in the short term, as has also occurred in ' Pushing ' attempts in recent years, "said Bentes. In the same sense, he recalled that a possibly lower exchange in the coming months should facilitate the lives of shopkeepers who are starting to get organized for the end of the year sales. "As the second semester concentrates a large number of important commemorative dates for trade with a call for importation, the less valued American currency should help in the stock composition movement of retailers linked to the category of this Like, "complemented him. Finally, Bentes points out that the growth of the sector as a whole in the year 2019 should be closer to that obtained in 2017 (4%) than in 2018 (5%). "We have reviewed from 4.5% to 4.2% The high perspective," he concluded. With a similar perspective, the coordinator of the Trade Survey of the Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV/Ibre), Rodolpho Tobler, states that the movement of resumption of sales must depart precisely from segments of basic necessity, e.g. food and pharmaceutical retailers. "With about 13 million unemployed in the country, essential cats should be concentrated in these product categories. Depending on how the demand for these areas walks, there will be a greater chance of investment by entrepreneurs, such as hiring employees, "said Tobler. Still according to the specialist, the situation of the sector is "complicated", because the salary mass of Brazilians has been demonstrating that it has been compromised and restricted for some time. "Currently, the scenario is stagnant. However, the progress of reforms in Congress can in some way stimulate the investment process and increase in retail sales volume between the end of 2019 and the beginning of next year, "said Tobler.
DCI - 12/07/2019 News Item translated automatically
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