segunda-feira, 09 de outubro, 2017

Corn: may react with any problem in South America

São Paulo, 06-the low prices of maize in the world may be changing if the crop in South America to present relevant issues and there is less availability of cereal, said the the report FCStone INTL "Outlook for Commodities, released today. "With the northern hemisphere crops already in the final stages, the focus in the next three months should be centered on South American crop, planting period," explained in the document the market analyst of INTL FCStone, Ana Luiza Lodi. According to the consultancy, the estimate is that the area planted in Argentina with the cereal grow almost 6% compared with the 2016/17 cycle, reaching 5.4 million hectares. The growth should be despite the wide offer and the pressure on prices of maize in the country, because Argentine exports of cereal are not taxed as the soybean, says the FCStone. The planting is already in full swing in some regions and for now the weather conditions are favorable, even with the rain falling in some areas. In Brazil, the consultancy forecast reinforced fall about 10% of the area of the 2017/18 summer crop, as well as use of areas cultivated with corn in the last cycle to plant soy. The move is spurred by ample supply on the domestic market and low prices. The FCStone also reaffirmed at the first crop production forecast 20% less than in 2016/17, because "hardly the productivity of 2016/17 cycle will be repeated this year. The consultancy reported that the sowing of summer corn's early 2017/18 in Rio Grande do Sul and late in other States because of the dry weather in the Center-South of the country until the end of September. "These delays may encourage an even greater reduction of summer cereal area", says Ana Luiza. The analyst considered heated exports in the second half have positive impact, but limited in prices, because of the high availability of corn. External sales of the cereal 2016/17 cycle to reach 30 million tons, the final stocks must be 20 million t, estimates consultancy. "As much as Brazil can export volumes much bigger than this, the offer of other exporters such as the US, Argentina and Ukraine, is also high," said the FCStone. About soybeans, the think tank said the global supply and demand balance remains comfortable, leaving limited space for high expressive. Any problem with the South American harvest in the coming months could change the situation, since the demand follows heated and offer focuses on just a few countries. In Brazil, despite the lack of rains in the Center-South in September and delayed planting in some regions of Mato Grosso and Paraná, were not recorded heavy losses, according to the consultancy. For October, the standardisation of the FCStone reported rains, allowing the progress of farming in these regions and planting in other States. Consulting production projection reiterated in 2017/18 above 100 million t – at the beginning of September, the estimate was 106.7 million t in season. In Argentina, there are fears that the bulky rain delay planting the recent rape. There are already smaller acreage forecast compared to the vintage 2016/17, remember the FCStone. The possibility of La Niña at the end of the year also keeps producers apprehensive, because it could make the driest climate in southern Brazil and Argentina. But if it is confirmed, adds the consulting, the phenomenon will be low intensity. As for the wheat, the market will remain focused in the end Brazil's harvest and beginning in Argentina, says the consulting. In southern Brazil, the rains were limited in July and August, damaging the development of plantations in the region. In Argentina the scenario is reversed: many of the crops suffered damage caused by recurrent rains and excessive moisture in the soil. "The offer argentina is still uncertain, but the volume designed still manages to supply the internal demand and exports. The scenario of very low stocks in MERCOSUR must be maintained until the end of 2017/18 ", said in the report the market analyst John M. The FCStone assessed that the smaller acreage projection 2017/18 harvest is made by the national supply company (Conab) are lower than those indicated by the market. "Reports indicate more severe reductions in cultivation than the 9.5% expected by Conab," pondered Macedo in the document. In Argentina, the FCStone stressed that the Rosario Board of trade (BCR) has reduced your productivity perspective, 3.32 tonnes/hectare in August to 3.12 tonnes/hectare in September, because of the excess moisture and some frosts in producing areas, as well as drought in certain regions of the country. The bag design production of 16.5 million tons this year, down from 17 million tons harvested last year, because, in addition to harming the income, the adverse weather also limited the expansion of the area.
ISTOÉ – 06/10/2017 Noticia traduzida automaticamente
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