terça-feira, 12 de dezembro, 2017

IBGE provides 9.2% lower grain harvest in 2018

The second prognosis for 2018 harvest shows that the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was estimated at 219.5 million tons, 9.2 percent below the harvest of 2017. This reduction is due to smaller productions planned for the corn (15.9 million tonnes) and soybeans (6.8 million tons). Already the 11th estimate for 2017 crop totaled 241.9 million tons, with an increase of 56.1 million tonnes (30.2%) in relation to 2016 (185.8 million tons). The area to be harvested (61.2 million hectares) was 7.2% in 2016. Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products of this group, and, together, represent 93.9% of the estimate of production and account for 87.8% of the area to be harvested. Towards 2016, an increase of 2.2% in the area of soybeans, of 19.2% in the area of maize and 4.6% in the area of rice. As for production, there were 17.4% increases for rice, 19.4% for soybeans and 55.2% for maize. Regionally, the estimate of November for the harvest of 2017 points production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds with the following distribution in tonnes: Midwest (106 million); South (85.2 million); South East (24 million); Northeast (17.9 million) and North (8.8 million). In relation to the last harvest, were found increases in all regions: Southeast (16.4%), North (25.1%), Northeast (86.2%), Midwest (41.0%) and South (16.1%). In this evaluation to 2017, the Mato Grosso led the largest national producer of grain, with a share of 26.2%, followed by Paraná (17.2%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.1%), which, together, accounted for 58.5% of the national total planned. The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here. For 2018, according to estimated 9.2% lower harvest prognosis than 2017 this second prognosis, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2018 was estimated at 219.5 million tons, 9.2% lower than the total obtained in 2017. This reduction is due to smaller productions planned for the corn (15.9 million tonnes) and soybeans (6.8 million tons). Among the top five products for the next harvest, three must present falls in production: paddy rice (-8.0%), corn (-15.9%) and soya beans (-5.9%). Are expected high in the production of herbaceous cotton (4.5%) and shelled beans (4.1%). This prognosis, the field information represent 93.8% of the national production, while the projections account for 6.2% of the total estimated. HERBACEOUS COTTON (seed) – with better expectations with regard to the climate, according to prognosis of the cotton production is 4 million tons, an increase of 6.2% over the previous month. The area planted and harvested area increased by 3.7%, and the average yield rose by 2.4%. In all, should be planted in an area of 1,023.2 thousand hectares. In Mato Grosso, the country's leading producer, the production estimate reaches 2.7 million tons, representing 66.3% of the total to be harvested in 2018 by the country and growth of 4.5% in relation to 2017. The area planted and the area harvested grew by 10.2%, while the average yield estimated had 5.2% retraction. Bahia, the country's second-largest producer, should join with 22.8% of the total to be harvested in 2018. The State should reap a crop of 914,800 tons, an increase of 31.8% compared to the previous month. Rice (paddy) – the second rice production forecast to 2018 is 11.5 million tonnes (-0.1% compared to October and-8.0% compared to 2017). The Rio Grande do Sul, the country's largest producer of rice, should join with 70.9% of the total to be harvested in 2018, with production of around 8.1 million tonnes (-6.9% compared to 2017). Santa Catarina, second national producer, estimates 1.1 million tons and an expected average yield of 7305 kg/ha (-4.9% in relation to the harvest of 2017). The Tocantins estimated a production of 582,700 metric tons (-14.0% compared to 2017). In Maranhão and Mato Grosso estimated productions are falling 5.9% and 21.7% respectively. BEANS (beans)-the second production estimate for bean yield 2018 is 3.4 million tonnes, an increase of 4.1% in relation to the crop harvested in 2017. The first crop should produce 1.7 million tons; the second crop production of 1.3 million tonnes and the third harvest, 520,000 tons. In relation to the first prognosis 4.6% growth occurred in bean production estimates first crop, with increases of 2.2% in the area to be harvested and 2.4% in average yield. There are expectations of better yields in Paraíba (134.1%), Bahia (18.6%), in Rio Grande do Norte (17.6%), in Rondônia (11.5%), Minas Gerais (4.7%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (12.1%). The area to be planted in summer (first harvest) is 1.8 million hectares, 2.0% less than that of 2017. Already in the area to be harvested should grow 2.0%. The biggest production increases, in percentage terms, to this crop, are being informed by Ceará (62.2%), Rio Grande do Norte (78.2%), Paraíba (82.3%), Bahia (21.7%) and Minas Gerais (11.2%). In terms of production volume, the Ceará (84600 tons), Bahia (30600 tonnes), Paraná (11500 tonnes) and Paraíba (12300 tons). CORN (grain) – the second prognosis of corn on grain production estimated 83.7 million tons in 2018 (-15.9% compared to 2017). Field forecasts this month represent almost all of the first crop estimate (99.8%), while the estimate of the second crop is still composed of projections in 15.8%. The harvest was record, reaching 2017 99.6 million tons, which raises the basis for comparison for production next year. Following the trend of recent years, the second crop should present the largest volume harvested in the country, with 69.2% of the national production in 2018, totaling 57.9 million tons (-15.5% in comparison with 2017). Already the first corn harvest should reach 25.8 million tons (-17.0% in comparison with the previous period). When compared with the first prognosis, the fall in production estimate was 1.2%, due mainly to the States of Bahia (-15.1%) and Minas Gerais (-9.9%). Even with lower-cost production forecast, in relation to the previous harvest, corn acreage reduction, due to the low prices of product marketing observed throughout the year 2017, which encouraged producers to replace corn first crop areas by soybeans. The reduction in acreage in the first crop should reach 7.3%, being estimated at 5.3 million hectares. However, the biggest impact on the decrease of the prognosis is the average yield, that must make fall of 12.2% over the same period to 2017, when the result of production was considered exceptional. The delay of the start of the planting of soybeans in major producing States, because of the low rainfall in August and September, should also contribute to the decrease in the second year. corn SOYA (beans)-the second production estimate for 2018 amounted to 108.1 million tons, a reduction of 5.9% in relation to the harvest of 2017. The area to be planted with legumes is 34.1 million hectares, an increase of 0.5%. The estimated average income is 3,170 kg/ha, retraction of 6.6%, due to the uncertainties about the climate during the culture cycle. Considering the historical record of soybean production in 2017, the basis for comparison is relatively high. The trend of more advantageous prices, as compared to corn, should encourage the planting of soybeans, which has a stake in 49.3% of the total grain crop of the country. Mato Grosso, the biggest national producer must contribute with 30.4 million tons, 28.1% of the total being produced across the country (-0.2% compared to 2017, despite an increase of 1.0% in the area to be planted). Parana, second largest producer and responsible for 18.1% of the national total, an estimated 19.6 million tonnes to produce (-1.1%, despite the growth of 5.5% in the area to be planted). The Rio Grande do Sul, third largest producer of legumes, estimated a production of 14.7 million tons (-21.7% compared to 2017). In relation to the first prognosis, released the previous month, there is an increase of 0.4%, reflecting mainly the increases in Bahia (12.6%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (4.3%). Some States have adjusted negatively its estimates, as Rondônia (-8.9%) and Minas Gerais (-6.1%). Highlights in the estimate of November 2017 compared to October in the systematic survey of agricultural production in November compared to October stood out variations in estimates of production of: barley (2.6%), rice (1.1%), onions (1.1%), potato-harvest (0.9%) English 2nd , oats (-0.5%), wheat (-0.7%) and second harvest (-1.2%). Rice (paddy) – rice production was 12.5 million tons, 1.1% more than the previous month's estimate. The area planted and the average income were revised in 0.7% and 0.4% respectively, as a result of the information of the Tocantins. The production of that State grew 26.4 percent compared to the previous month, and achieve 677,600 tons, an increase of 141,500 tonnes. The area planted and the area harvested grew by 13.3%, while the average yield grew 11.6%. The utilization of new rice varieties for irrigated cultivation has increased the average yield of the crops. ENGLISH potato-all in all, the country must produce 4.2 million tons in 2017, an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous month. There was little readjustment in harvested area (0.2%) and average yield (0.1%). The production estimate for the first crop not varied in relation to the previous month, remaining at 2 million tons. The production estimate of the second crop was of 1.2 million tons, an increase of 0.9% over the previous month. The data was influenced by the Federal District, which this month updated their production data, with new estimate of 10800 tonnes. For the third crop was estimated to be 1 million of production...
Notícias Agrícolas - 12-12-2017 Noticia traduzida automaticamente
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